Optimists will level to the truth that June 2023 was the eleventh consecutive month of progress, with the market up 18.4% YTD. Pessimists will level out that, within the first half of the yr, the UK market was nonetheless 27.7% under the place it was 5 years in the past.

In the meantime, the SMMT is at present forecasting a complete determine of 1.83 million for 2023, which is about the place the market was in 1994, writes David Francis.

At a producer degree, the main growth YTD has been VW retaking the No. 1 spot from Ford. It appears unlikely that VW will relinquish its place any time quickly, as Ford ended manufacturing of the Fiesta in June, with the Focus because of observe by 2025.

With a slender crossover-focused automotive vary (a few of which will likely be primarily based on VW platforms), it’s onerous to see how Ford can compete with VW’s “entry all areas” 16-model line-up.

In actual fact, third-placed Audi is extra prone to catch VW than Ford, given long-term traits – though whether or not that might be allowed by the VW hierarchy is one other matter. It’s attention-grabbing to notice, nevertheless, that the A4 E-tron has offered extra to date this yr than any electrical VW. 

It’s due to this fact no shock that there was an emergency facelift of the pretty lacklustre ID3. This was named because it was to be the third seminal VW after the Beetle and the Golf: to date its efficiency seems to be extra new Jetta than new Golf.

Kia has slipped behind Audi, and is now solely simply forward of Toyota, which sits in fifth place. Nonetheless, Kia’s market share of over 6% continues to be an excellent determine for a producer that, 20 years in the past was an economic system model with minimal market consciousness.

That’s each an inspiration and a warning – you may wager the Chinese language manufacturers have been finding out Kia’s UK success very rigorously.

Toyota’s progress has some parallels with Kia – it has had good progress in recent times, however has seen a fall in market share this yr. As Asia’s pre-eminent automotive producer, it actually gained’t be blissful about being outsold by a relative upstart from South Korea. The foremost distinction is that Kia has among the finest ranges of battery electrical autos within the trade, whereas Toyota has struggled to even get its first BEV (the BZ4X) to market: the primary 2700 automobiles made needed to be recalled for wheels doubtlessly falling off (the information headline wrote itself).

Behind Toyota (and uncharacteristically adrift of Audi) is BMW. Its market share of 5.5% YTD is its lowest for a few years. One of many predominant causes is a 2.5% fall in 3 Sequence gross sales – the automotive that was historically BMW’s greatest vendor is now outsold by the 1-Sequence, 4-Sequence and 2-Sequence.

With reference to as soon as best-selling fashions, seventh-placed Vauxhall is fighting the brand new Astra. It’s nonetheless not even within the Prime 10 C-segment hatchbacks (behind the Mini Countryman) or the Prime 25 C-segment fashions if crossovers are included. Absolutely outselling the Mazda CX-5 shouldn’t be too huge an ask for a mannequin that used to struggle for section management?

The segments underneath scrutiniy

At a section degree, it’s a story of ever-greater focus, no matter whether or not the market is examined by bodystyle or automobile measurement.

For the primary time, over half of complete gross sales had been crossovers/SUV. C-segment automobiles (the main exponent having morphed from the Focus to the Qashqai) took a file 38.7%, whereas B-segment superminis (now led by the Ford Puma) took 31.7% – not fairly a file, however shut.

Premium/massive SUVs (from the Volvo XC40 upwards) took 17.9%, which meant that the three greatest segments took their highest-ever mixed share of 88.2%.

The consequence was that six different segments needed to share lower than 12% of the whole market.

The largest casualty has been Government saloons and estates, such because the BMW 5-Sequence. This section took simply 1.1% share YTD, down from 2.4% in the identical interval of 2020. May the chief saloon go the identical means because the C-segment saloons of the Eighties just like the Ford Orion and Vauxhall Belmont – or the way in which of the Ford Mondeo and Vauxhall Insignia of more moderen years?

With crossovers now the default alternative, the place will new consumers of govt saloons come from – may the section fade away together with its, er, mature clientele?

The opposite main pattern to date this yr has been the rise of recent manufacturers – or not less than a few of them. Cupra has doubled its market share in comparison with the identical interval of 2022 (0.6% to 1.2%), as a trendy re-invention of Seat.

Polestar has achieved the identical feat (0.35% to 0.7%), as a cooler, extra fashionable Volvo. The Polestar 2 is at present the second best-selling Compact Government mannequin, behind solely the BNW 4-Sequence. It’s even outselling the Tesla Mannequin 3 which given Tesla’s distinctive charging community, is sort of a consequence.

Clearly loads of consumers desire Scandi-cool to California bombast.

It’s too early to attract conclusions concerning the bravest new model to enter the UK market – Genesis. We are able to say it’s no Infiniti – with gross sales of simply over 800 YTD, it’s in all probability doing in addition to might be anticipated at this stage.

It will likely be fascinating to see if Genesis could make something like the identical price of progress as its Hyundai and Kia siblings.

Sadly, it’s not too quickly to touch upon the destiny of some new manufacturers. DS is becalmed at simply 0.2% market share, primarily as a result of no-one appears to know what it’s for.

Lastly, in these troublesome instances, let’s end on two optimistic tales of attainable model redemption. After 20 years of spiralling downwards, the brand new Avenger has lastly given Jeep a mannequin that would promote in first rate numbers within the UK.

In the meantime Lotus has seen gross sales enhance from mainly nothing to 667 YTD. Its reinvention underneath Geely is underway, and we should always hope that this model, with a historical past of extra unfulfilled promise than nearly some other, can lastly flourish.