Ford is on observe to promote between 40,000 and 50,000 electrical autos within the US this 12 months. That’s not good. But, first-quarter gross sales indicate Ford would be the third finest promoting automaker within the EV business in 2023.

Tesla, in the meantime, is on observe to promote about 640,000 electrical autos within the US in 2023. So, whereas Ford might find yourself third, it’s far, far away from #1 Tesla.

There are a number of causes for the distinction in scale, together with battery provides and general manufacturing functionality, however on the patron aspect, one issue that has lengthy favored Tesla to an important extent is its Supercharger community. It’s by far the most effective community for straightforward, dependable, superfast charging.

A couple of years in the past, after we requested hundreds of EV consumers “Which of the next are an important concerns so that you can contemplate shopping for a particular EV mannequin?” (permitting multiple choice), 23% of Tesla drivers, 35% of non-Tesla BEV drivers and 42% of PHEV drivers chosen “Entry to Tesla’s Supercharger community (or a comparable superfast-charging community).” For an fascinating comparability, these figures had been 90%, 3%, and 0%, respectively, within the UK.

Some individuals might contemplate different EV quick charging networks as akin to Tesla’s Supercharger community, however they actually aren’t on the identical degree nonetheless, which is why Ford CEO Jim Farley determined that Ford would companion with Tesla to provide its drivers entry to Tesla Supercharging.

Earlier than persevering with on this matter, I’ll simply say once more that with a view to promote much more electrical autos a 12 months, Ford has to line up the battery provides and ramp up the manufacturing capability. So long as it doesn’t do this, it gained’t get lots of the advantages Tesla has earned and it gained’t in fact promote one million EVs a 12 months. Nonetheless, if it put in that effort, with this new partnership, I feel Ford may simply promote half one million EVs a 12 months within the States.

Initially, I put “1 million” within the title, and I feel that’s certainly doable. Nonetheless, to be a bit extra conservative and real looking in regards to the close to time period, I dropped that to a few quarter of Ford’s gross sales, or half one million. The corporate has a sexy, succesful, competitively priced electrical crossover or SUV on supply (the Ford Mustang Mach-E) and an electrical pickup truck (the Ford F-150 Lightning). With good choices in these extraordinarily widespread segments, Ford may definitely climb near the mixed success of the Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y. Add yet another BEV in one other widespread automotive class and Ford may purpose for 50,000 gross sales 1 / 4 for every of the fashions and will thus attain 600,000 a 12 months.

Ford has had a problem with giant markups on its electrical autos at sellers as demand has far outstripped provide. With Supercharger entry coming, anticipate that drawback to resurface. I do know individuals in my very own life who would significantly contemplate a Ford EV with this a lot better charging entry, my circle of relatives included.

A Ford F-150 Lightning at a Tesla charging station

Naturally, this isn’t a scientific endeavor, and all forecasting relies to some extent on assumptions which can be merely guesses. Nonetheless, I used to be fairly proper on my expectations for Tesla Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y gross sales progress, and I feel Ford may promote just a few hundred thousand F-150 Lightnings and a pair hundred thousand Mustang Mach-Es to clients now that they are going to achieve Tesla Supercharger entry — if Ford has sufficient ambition and produces sufficient. What do you suppose? Is 500,000 electrical Fords too bullish? Nonetheless bearish?