How we measure and report on the power and decarbonization transition issues. The legacy of previous items we use for power distorts debate and dialogue. Making use of items of power to issues like hydrogen that aren’t power frames them as essentially a part of the power transition. And the USA’s behavior of sticking with previous Imperial measurements that nobody else makes use of confuses issues additional.

However let’s begin with hydrogen. What’s hydrogen as we speak? It’s an industrial feedstock and a local weather change emissions downside, on the dimensions of all of aviation as we speak. But Europe measures it in items of electrical energy, TWh or MWh. What’s up with that?

Hydrogen Demand Projection by means of 2100, chart by creator

Its greatest use is in oil refineries to take away sulfur, water, and different impurities from crude oil, and to crack lighter elements out of heavier elements. The more severe the standard the crude oil, the extra hydrogen is required, with my estimate being virtually eight kilograms of hydrogen to course of a barrel of Alberta’s oil sands crude, for instance. Low sulfur, gentle crude makes use of rather a lot much less. The distinction is a part of why Alberta (and Venezuela’s) crude oils shall be first off the market as peak oil demand arrives later this decade, with shuttering of most oil sands seemingly by 2040. The roughly one-third of all hydrogen, 40 million tons, used for oil as we speak will plummet within the coming a long time.

Its subsequent greatest use is in manufacturing ammonia fertilizer. About 25% or 30 million tons is used there. Fertilizer is crucial to feeding the billions of individuals on the planet, no matter impending peak inhabitants, most definitely someday between 2050 and 2070. We received’t eradicate fertilizer, however in my projections we’ll diminish its use considerably. Nitrogen fixing agrigenetics, precision agriculture, and low-tillage agriculture will all lower into demand for it.

The one development sectors I foresee for it are in some pathways to the restricted quantity of biofuels we require for longer haul aviation and maritime transport, and inexperienced metal manufacturing. Hydrotreating of biofuels is a similar to hydrotreating of crude oil as we speak, however the large demand attracts of desulfurization and hydrocracking received’t be current, so mixed with a lot decrease volumes of liquid fuels, it’s simply not going to be an enormous consumption space. Inexperienced metal below the HYBRIT mannequin makes use of 59 kilograms of hydrogen per ton of metal, however we’ll be turning an increasing number of to scrapping present metal, particularly the huge quantities in fossil gasoline infrastructure globally to produce new metal.

Notice that none of those use circumstances is expounded to electrical energy and that I measure hydrogen in metric tons, an really wise unit for an industrial feedstock.

So why do particularly European organizations insist on measuring hydrogen with items of power? I lately stepped by means of a DNV report on manufacturing hydrogen offshore in wind farms. Amongst many different unhealthy selections, it makes use of MWh because the measure of hydrogen.

It’s complicated. It takes about 60 MWh to fabricate a ton of hydrogen with the electrolyzer and stability of plant attracts. However that ton of hydrogen isn’t equal to 60 MWh of electrical energy by any stretch of the creativeness. First off, the 60 MWh used to fabricate, compress, retailer, and distribute hydrogen is probably 70% environment friendly. The 60 MWh is already solely 42 MWh.

You may make a declare that hydrogen’s power is the same as its heating worth if burned, about 120 gigajoules (GJ). If you will get that hydrogen to one thing to burn it in with out losses, you will get that a lot warmth out of it. However hydrogen solely turns into electrical energy by means of both the equal of a pure gasoline mixed cycle generator that’s about 50% environment friendly, or maybe a gasoline cell that is perhaps 60% environment friendly. In actuality, solely about half of the power within the hydrogen is obtainable as electrical energy.

The reported 60 MWh of hydrogen is just 20 MWh of actual electrical energy. Utilizing MWh for hydrogen as DNV does grossly distorts the which means of the MWh unit.

As I famous in my evaluation of DNV’s report, even with their extremely optimistic numbers for inexperienced hydrogen from any supply, the top price of power can be ten occasions increased than imported liquid pure gasoline (LNG), the most costly type of imported power frequently used as we speak, not that DNV makes that comparability anyplace of their report. Making power ten occasions costlier is a recipe for financial catastrophe, and so will fall by the wayside. And as famous, DNV is extremely optimistic, so inexperienced hydrogen will really be costlier than they venture.

In fact, along with being deeply deceptive concerning the precise out there power, it’s framing hydrogen when it comes to power, not as an industrial feedstock. The elemental assumption that the DNV report makes is that hydrogen will change oil, pure gasoline, and coal as a major power provider for Europe’s economic system. (DNV additionally ignores the stability of plant power attracts, assumes low-cost electrolyzers, and assumes that hydrogen pipelines are extra environment friendly than HVDC transmission, all deeply questionable selections.)

Is DNV alone on this unhealthy framing? No, the brand new European EEX Hydrix inexperienced hydrogen index additionally makes use of MWh because the unit for hydrogen too, as I famous when calculating the quickly inflating high quality low cost for Alberta’s crude oil lately. The index is a good suggestion, gathering business deal information, normalizing and aggregating it. But it surely’s caught on this hydrogen-for-energy paradigm.

EEX Hydrix FAQ assertion on utilizing LHV and MWh for inexperienced hydrogen

So sure, regardless of hydrogen not getting used for power as we speak, Europe is framing all the things about hydrogen as we speak when it comes to the electrical energy required to fabricate inexperienced hydrogen, as if that could be a unit of obtainable power. They’re explicitly making a comparability to the best way that Europe measures pure gasoline, additionally in MWh. It additionally makes use of the decrease heating worth, which is unrepresentative of the particular effectivity of the method. Why? As a result of the EU hydrogen technique does.

And to be clear, it’s ambiguous about whether or not the Hydrix index is utilizing the power required to fabricate hydrogen, though the reference to decrease heating worth means that’s the case, or whether or not it’s utilizing it from a perspective about its precise embodied power.

So, subsequent query. Is it acceptable for Europe to measure pure gasoline when it comes to MWh? It’s, relying on the conversion issue used. The most important use case for pure gasoline is, in spite of everything, technology of electrical energy. So long as the spark unfold — the common distinction between the price of gasoline delivered on the gasoline transmission system and the ability worth — of fifty% is used, it’s a helpful measure. Industrial customers, who usually use pure gasoline for warmth way more immediately, know how you can convert it. Residential customers, one other massive however diminishing pure gasoline market, don’t know what MWh are anyway.

Lawrence Livermore Nationwide Laboratory (LLNL) Sankey diagram of US power flows for 2021

It is a diagram frequently utilized by me and lots of different power analysts. It’s a Sankey diagram of power flows from major power to power companies. It’s a great tool, particularly once you take a look at rejected power in its outstanding place on the higher proper. Rejected power is power we throw away. We don’t use it. It’s simply vented into the ambiance. It’s excessive entropy and ineffective to us. It’s attainable to seize a tiny fraction of it and shift it into district heating options, however that’s by far the exception moderately than the rule.

Have a look at the grey bar popping out of Transportation on the underside proper, for instance. 80% of the power that flows into that field simply disappears, making the air above highways hotter and flowing out of the engines of jets and the smokestacks of ships. In comparison with the power from the solar hitting the Earth, it’s an infinitesimal quantity of warmth, however in comparison with the first power flowing into the system, it’s big.

This diagram, which is completely about power, makes use of quadrillions of British thermal items (Btu) as its unit of power. (Cue irony sound impact.) That’s a a lot poorer alternative for power than the European mannequin as a result of the Btu is so unrepresentative of the power popping out the opposite finish. For those who want warmth, it’s fairly good. However for those who want electrical energy — and the world is electrifying quickly — then it’s a foul alternative.

All of these power packing containers on the left of the diagram are in quadrillions of Btu, however we don’t want to switch them as we transfer to a lot increased effectivity electrical power makes use of powered by renewables the place nature provides us the gasoline free of charge, so we have now no effectivity losses to talk of when changing it to truly helpful electrical energy.

And so, to a current piece by the US Vitality Data Administration right here in CleanTechnica: Nonfossil Gas Vitality Sources Accounted For 21% Of U.S. Vitality Consumption In 2022.

US power consumption graph from US EIA

Nonetheless in quads, clearly. And it’s extolling the expansion of non-fossil gasoline shares of power. So the query is, how do they calculate the Btu for wind, photo voltaic, and water, as apparent examples?

There are quite a lot of selections. Zenon Analysis, a European local weather tech suppose tank, simply printed an evaluation of the issue, calling for standardization.

Zenon Analysis graphic from 2023 analysis notice Past Main Vitality

They speak concerning the alternative ways to get to power equivalents. The above graphic exhibits the three major strategies used. Substitution provides the inefficiencies of thermal technology to the wind, photo voltaic, and water, answering the query “If we needed to burn pure gasoline for this, what number of thermal items of gasoline can be required for a similar electrical energy?” It’s the spark unfold of fifty% once more, however in fact, meaning choosing the right quantity for the spark unfold. It will get all the things into the identical items, however the items are unhealthy.

The direct equal methodology simply makes use of the output of wind, photo voltaic, and water as is, assuming 100% effectivity of turning wind into helpful power. That’s clearly lacking transmission and the like, so is in another way imperfect, however a lot nearer to helpful.

The bodily power content material methodology makes use of the direct equal methodology for wind, water, and photo voltaic, and a conversion issue for thermal pathways as a consequence of their power losses.

So what does the IEA information use? Are these precise items of power, with the really helpful electrical energy accurately represented, are they grossed up with thermal inefficiencies, or what?

“Starting with the September 2023 Month-to-month Vitality Evaluate (MER), we are going to calculate consumption of noncombustible renewable power for electrical energy technology utilizing the captured power method, which applies a continuing conversion issue of three,412 British thermal items per kilowatthour (Btu/kWh), the warmth content material of electrical energy. It is a change from our present methodology, known as the fossil gasoline equivalency method.”

Properly, they’re about to vary and confuse everyone.

So if they’re going to direct Btu in September, what are they utilizing within the diagram above? That’s really a query I’ve been attempting to determine for some time with the LLNL Sankey diagrams as effectively, as their transient footnote was remarkably uninformative.

It took a very long time to resolve this, and once I say backside, I imply the underside row on an enormous small print desk on web page 241 of the IEA’s June 2023 Month-to-month Vitality Evaluate report. At current, for wind, water, and photo voltaic PV, they’re utilizing 8,844 Btu because the power equal. That equates to a 39% effectivity issue, consultant of quite a lot of thermal technology that’s effectively under pure gasoline mixed cycle mills.

Okay, so the EIA is aligning with the remainder of the world on how they characterize power from renewables. Are they doing the identical for fossil fuels?

Properly, no.

Meaning as of September, the EIA will begin representing renewables as a a lot smaller portion of the USA’s power combine than they’re in actuality, slicing their obvious deployment by 61%. The EIA doesn’t characterize the rejected power within the fossil fuels because the LLNL Sankey diagram, so till they deal with this, they’re going to make renewables look terrible.

The 21% win that they’re claiming within the CleanTechnica article, and presumably different press efforts, goes to be severely degraded in future reporting. Principally, the EIA is steaming away from apples-to-apples comparisons. One has to ask why.

So, two main economies, the EU and america. Two completely different issues with how they characterize issues. The EU is failing by making use of items of electrical energy to hydrogen. The USA is failing by eradicating apples-to-apples comparisons of fossil fuels to renewables. Each are combating the transition in numerous methods.

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