Troy Teslike has tracked the Tesla order backlog for years. One thing modified massively in December. The order backlog dropped from 190,000 to 74,000. One may assume the order backlog would bounce up once more because the yr went on, since there’s typically a rush to purchase electrical automobiles on the finish of the yr, then a hangover impact, after which a bounce again in time. Nevertheless, on this case, the info and chart go to the tip of Might and there’s nonetheless no bounce. So, what’s the explanation for this?

Hello all people. Primarily based on my calculation, Tesla’s order backlog was 75K models on Might 31, up from 68K on April 30.

I’ve simply posted a brand new replace on Patreon: https://t.co/7jeWthBknx It’s going to be on Twitter in 2 weeks. Patreon permits me to proceed spending lots of time on this. Thanks pic.twitter.com/6IRmyENCyN

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 20, 2023

Word that these should not official numbers, however fairly estimates based mostly on printed wait occasions on Tesla’s web site in addition to manufacturing price estimates.

So far as why the order backlog has dropped prefer it has, there could also be just a few issues at play. To begin with, Tesla manufacturing could have lastly caught as much as client demand for Tesla automobiles. With out a large order backlog, Tesla autos are mainly being produced after which nearly instantly shipped to patrons. Tesla ramped up manufacturing at its gigafactories in Germany and Texas up to now half yr, to associate with extra incremental manufacturing enhancements in China and California. Maybe, with out main modifications, the manufacturing ranges Tesla has reached have lined up very intently with new orders. In some ways, that’s good. Nevertheless, if we assume that’s the case, one does need to marvel how for much longer Tesla can see fast gross sales development — till new fashions just like the Tesla Cybertruck and a lower-cost, smaller mannequin (Mannequin C?) usher in a broader, larger market.

One other issue at play is that Tesla has lastly been in a position to “unwind” a lot of the supply wave it has been wanted to make use of because it began delivering the Mannequin S in 2012. Tesla needed to plan and implement completely different rounds of manufacturing and supply to get automobiles from California to patrons in its three principal markets — the US, Europe, and China. Then, when the Shanghai gigafactory obtained constructed and manufacturing ramped up, that manufacturing facility might be used for the Chinese language client market and in a while for the European client market. As soon as Tesla made the subsequent step and did the identical factor in Germany, it may actually begin dissolving this sophisticated logistics system. US-produced automobiles may largely be used for North America, automobiles produced at Giga Berlin may largely be despatched to European patrons, and automobiles produced in China may largely be used for China and markets comparatively “close by.” With all three of those factories (in addition to the newer Giga Texas manufacturing facility) steadily producing 1000’s of automobiles per week, there may be a lot much less of a necessity for lengthy waits as patrons’ automobiles are shipped midway all over the world.

Naturally, the second issue is nice information, whereas the primary issue is okay for now however presents some concern in {that a} sudden, sudden drop in demand might be disruptive to Tesla’s funds. After all, a longer-term decline in demand would even be problematic, since costly manufacturing tools must recoup its prices. Generally, most individuals anticipate Tesla to continue to grow — by way of client demand, manufacturing, and gross sales. Nevertheless, the longer term can shock, and robust development is just not assured. We’ll see what occurs. Within the meantime, any ideas you’ve got on Tesla’s order backlog are welcome down in our feedback part. We’re all the time studying from readers, and I stay up for studying extra on this subject.

Featured picture courtesy of Troy Teslike.