Big amongst growing nations, Mexico stands presently because the seventh-largest vehicle producer on the planet (in variety of items). It’s the fifth-largest vehicle exporter (in whole worth). The Mexican auto business has grown sevenfold for the reason that Sixties and doubled its output for the reason that Nineties, when it was granted full entry to the US market. And very like the US, it’s been drastically targeted on the interior combustion engine.

Till just lately, that’s. 

As a result of, identical to within the US, the IRA appears to be inflicting important upheaval within the Mexican auto business, away from the centenary combustion engine and into the electrical automobiles and batteries which might be prone to rule the worldwide automobile market as early as the tip of the last decade. Numbers are nonetheless small, however they’re rising at important charges, and this 12 months is poised to triple the BEV manufacturing of 2022.

Mexico’s Auto Manufacturing in 2023

Mexico produced simply over 3.5 million vehicles in 2022, a quantity slightly below Germany’s 3.677 million and South Korea’s 3.757 million. Nonetheless, placing these numbers into perspective, Mexico’s manufacturing has fallen from an all-time excessive of 4,664,779 in 2014. Although, evaluating that to Germany’s 6,146,948 vehicles produced in 2011, the nation has been closing the gap with the European chief in an analogous option to South Korea.

Of these 3½ million vehicles, solely 2% or so (79,471) had been BEVs … not a sight to behold, in all equity. But the tides are turning, and Mexico’s manufacturing traces are anticipated to triple this quantity in 2023 — over 220,000 electrical automobiles are anticipated to be produced in Mexico, as a lot as 7% of the yearly manufacturing.

And that is solely the start.

San Luis Potosí electrical car manufacturing, Picture courtesy of BMW 

So far as the general public info goes, solely two further fashions might be produced in Mexico this 12 months: the Blazer EV and the Equinox EV (each from GM). Add these onto elevated Ford Mustang Mach-E manufacturing that’s anticipated. There’s additionally presently manufacturing of some JAC EVs: the E10X (metropolis automobile), the EJ7 (a midsized sedan), the Sunray Van, and the ESei4 Professional (an SUV).

The explosion is predicted. Nonetheless, up to now this 12 months, the numbers are nonetheless low, most likely as a consequence of Ford’s deliberate shutdown in January to extend capability for the Mach-E.

Mexico BEV Manufacturing in 2023

Behind the early months, in any case, a Tsunami is coming.

2024 & Past

Tesla’s intention to open up a plant in Nuevo León is well-known and has already been coated right here on CleanTechnica. However Tesla is much from the one automaker eyeing the Mexican lands for brand new manufacturing capability. Apart from it (and Ford, and GM, which we already talked about), a number of others have proven curiosity:

• Volkswagen: In October 2022, the German automaker introduced a $763 million funding in its plant in Puebla, the place it plans to supply a number of electrical SUVs. The corporate initially stated that manufacturing will begin in 2026.
• BMW: In February 2023, the opposite German automaker introduced an $800 million funding in its plant in San Luis Potosí. EVs are anticipated to be produced from 2027 onwards.
• BYD: In February 2023, the Chinese language firm introduced curiosity in a Latin American plant, with Mexico being the most certainly candidate. No extra info has been supplied as of April 2023.
• Stellantis: In February 2023, the corporate introduced a $200 million funding in its plant in Saltillo, the place the brand new RAM Promaster EV might be produced as early as late 2023.
• Jetour: In March 2023, the Chinese language automaker introduced a $3 billion funding for a brand new plant in Aguascalientes or Guanajuato. The plant, to be opened in 2024, will produce ICE automobiles initially, however plans on a BEV line “in two to 3 years.”
• MG: In April 2023, the Chinese language-owed British model (is it British nonetheless?) introduced curiosity in a brand new plant in Mexico. The model has had important success within the nation, being now the eighth largest model in variety of gross sales after solely two years in Mexico, and it plans to make use of Mexico as a stepping stone to get to the US market.

A few of these investments are aiming for post-2025 manufacturing dates, however I’d wager that the realities of a altering market will pressure them to deliver manufacturing ahead. Others (primarily the Chinese language ones, and Tesla, however surprisingly additionally Stellantis) purpose to supply in 2025 or sooner.

The Mexican EV Market

Good instances are coming, however up to now, the Mexican EV market stays small, with solely a budget(ish) JAC E10X making it into triple digits throughout the first trimester of 2023. Complete BEV market share has a mere 0.3% of the market (which totaled 315,000 items this primary trimester).

I stated it earlier than and I’m repeating it now: it’s small metropolis vehicles such because the E10X that can spearhead the revolution in growing markets, no less than till worth parity is achieved within the CUV and sedan classes. Mexico stands for instance.